Happy Monday to all,
It’s a nice fall morning here today and though it’s supposed to get hot/humid with a bit of a thundershower later we’ll start off with hot coffee black and go from there.
Continued erosion in the coffee market all last week. After breaking the 200 day moving average the market found itself under pressure, building support around 211.00, which held again this morning, so far. The market was under heavy macro influence with inflation still a major issue here coming in higher than expected in a key report last week. Now most are expecting the US Federal Reserve to make another major interest rate hike.
Commitment of traders report issued Friday Sept 16 for trading as of Tuesday Sept 13 showed as expected with long fund selling about 5550 lots to be 42733 lots long while short fund also sold, this time 359 lots to be 6507 lots short. Trade was as usual the major offset buying about 5657 lots in total.
So far, Sept notices total 1520 lots
ICE Stocks took a major tumble this week standing now at 532,448 bags in total
Stocks in all hands in the USA did the opposite rising 226,801 bags to total 6.450 million bags. Likely these are dealers looking to stave off logistics problems by stationing coffee early to avoid problems with customers.
Vietnam reported they were still the world’s second largest coffee exporter exporting 112,531 tons of coffee worth 266 million US dollars. That was 4% down in volume but 13% up in value compared to a year ago. Vietnam has shipped 1.2 million tons of coffee in the first 8 months of the calendar year, up 11% from a year ago. Vietnams 16.1% share of the worlds coffee exports is 2nd only behind Brazil who has 22.2%
Support lies at 211.00 in Dec, breaking could see us challenge the 200.00 level. Resistance above 222.40 from the breakdown last Wednesday, then there’s the 200 day moving average again up near 228.00.
We have some nice Organic and FTO Honduras, RFA Colombia, Brazil 2/3 in the warehouse and some 2/3 17/18 that are just about to arrive, some Tarrazu La Pastora that also just arrived (the PSS was delicious), some FTO and Hard Bean Guatemala, and finally some organic Sumatra grade 5 if you need some filler. How can we help you today?
All the best,
The Armenia Team