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9-26-2022 Armenia Coffee Report

Good Morning,
We wish all of our friends who keep it, a blessed Rosh Hashanah.

The early part of last week started off with a bang, both Monday and Tuesday tried to test the 200 day moving average and just kept failing. When Wednesday did too, the market consolidated back near 220.00 for Dec.

Macro was the motivation for most of the week with the dollar very strong all week long. Brazilian Real is out to 5.27206 and the Colombian Peso at 4448.0.

The disaggregated COT showed long fund sold 3166 lots to be 39,567 lots long while short fund bought 1037 lots to be 5470 lots short. Trade bought about 3000 lots.

ICE stocks fell to the lowest level of the year now standing at 472,006 bags with 320 bags pending grading only.

Support remains down in the 220 area but if today stays an outside day we will probably be more likely to try upside resistance around 230.00. A strong close above 230 might see us try the recent 240 high again.

Ethiopia coffee export to increase by 560 metric tones

From October 2022 to September 2023 Ethiopia’s coffee exports are anticipated to increase to a 4.72 million bags, a record (280,560 metric tones MT) from 282,000 MT the previous year, says a new report.

During this period Ethiopia is expected to produce 8.25 million 60-kilogram bags of coffee (495,000 MT), according to the report released a few weeks ago by United States Department of Agriculture.

More than 15 million smallholder farmers and other industry participants rely on coffee as their primary source of income in Ethiopia. Last Ethiopian budget year 2021/22, Ethiopia’s coffee exports totaled 4.

70 million bags (282,000 MT). In 2020 and 21 Ethiopia’s top export markets were Germany, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Belgium, and Japan.

3.45 million bags (207,000) are anticipated to be consumed locally in MY 2021/22. Production The world’s first arabica coffee was introduced by Ethiopia.

Although delayed rains in the southern areas were noticed without having a significant impact other than to extend harvest in the region, the weather in 2021/22 has been generally favorable throughout

the production year with minimal insect and disease infestation in the coffee growing regions. Ethiopia is the world’s third-largest arabica coffee producer and the greatest producer of coffee in Africa as of 2022, with a production that has slowly increased from 6 million to over 8.15 million bags in the past ten years. The coffee seedling that was recently planted and grew for five to ten years is now producing.

The production of coffee is anticipated to increase by 100,000 bags in 2022/2023 to 8.25 million bags (495,000 MT), assuming favorable weather, low insect and disease pressure, and sufficient rain.

In comparison to our forecasts for 2019/2020, which were 7.6 million bags, the estimate for coffee output in 202021 has been increased to 8.15 million bags. The increased yields seen in the coffee producing belts, particularly in the southern and western regions, as well as the introduction of new trees for harvesting are the key causes of the increase in production volume.

During the MY 2020/21 coffee growing season, the amount and distribution pattern of rain was normal to higher than typical, according to the report. Due to Coffee Berry Disease, coffee experts are also advising coffee farmers to implement all feasible phytosanitary measures, such as regular field monitoring to uproot and burn infected coffee trees (CBD).

Sun-drying and wet processing are the two most popular coffee processing techniques. Currently, 2030% of Ethiopian coffee is washed, and 7080% is unwashed or sun-dried.

In many areas, including the United States where consumers prefer “cleaner” cleaned coffee, unwashed coffee is sold for less money. Other nations, like Japan, insist on unwashed coffee in order to give it a more authentic and flavorful taste.

We have some nice RFA Colombia EP just arriving as well as some Costa Rica Tarrazu. Half a box of FTO Guatemala left, some FTO and Organic Honduras and Grade 5 Organic Sumatra if you need some value.

Please let us know how we can help today.

All the best,
The Armenia Team