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9-27-2021 Armenia Coffee Report

Wishing all a happy Monday,

It’s going to be a wonderful fall week here in the Northeast. Perfect for the hot Sumatra Mandheling we’re enjoying today.

We week started off “more of the same” with the market rangebound in light volumes. FOMC meeting here in the USA rekindled talk about inflation, which had a negative impact on the dollar and a positive impact on commodities in general and coffee in particular. Coffee was also helped with continued talk of dry weather without the kind of sustained rains that would break this dry spell. After the frosts in the main growing areas in Brazil, the farms could really use a return to more normal patterns and a good soaking rain, which so far has alluded the forecasts.

Transportation continues to be a major setback for our industry. Shipping is becoming harder everywhere you look. Asia, notably Vietnam and Indonesia remain as tough as ever. Now we’re noting containers are not available in both Colombia, Brazil and Peru. Responsible shippers are trying to be proactive and requesting shipping instructions with multiple lines and asking for the ability to ship early if at all possible. We’re also seeing transshipment difficulties from Central American ports. There are few ports we’re working with right now, that don’t seem to be having any issues. We’re trying to adapt, but it’s been hard. Our advise has been to keep a little more coffee than you usually do to try and keep away from shortages, we continue to recommend you do that.

The C market finally broke through upside resistance at the 19000 level and that brought in some spec based buying and we’re back above the 21 day moving average. The COT issued Friday Sept 24 for trading as of Tuesday Sept 21 showed long funds bought 1,353 lots to go 52,498 lots long while short funds also bought, 219 lots to go 13,929 lots short. Trade bought a total of 3300+ lots this week the most aggressive they’ve been in some time.

Exchange stocks had a good sized drawdown this week, from 2,164,372 from last week to 2,123,080 this week a drop of 41,292 bags. There are currently nothing pending grading at this time. Exchange stocks have one big thing in their favor. They’re here (especially if here is Antwerp). The Brazilian Real is at 5.33987 this morning. After showing a little strength in the middle of the week last week it’s back widening out again. Colombia Peso at 3839.8

We have some nice Brazil 17/18 literally just in the warehouse, along with some Brazil RFA 2/3 ss fc. We have some Guatemala HB Quetzaltenango that is arrived just waiting on Conti to go get them. Our Vietnam Wet/Polished are finally in the warehouse as well
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All the best,
The Armenia Team