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9-12-2022 Armenia Coffee Report

Good day,

Normally we start off this comment with a “Happy Monday” type wish for all of our friends. However, yesterday was the 21st anniversary of the tragedy of September 11, 2001 and all that surrounds the events of that day. For us in the Northeast especially, we remember it as if it just happened. The flood of emotions that surround that day. Where we were (most of us we’re in the office, as the events unfolded we all left to make sure our loved ones were OK). All of us know someone who was lost on that day. All of us know the pain those families still go through every day not just on 9/11.

All of us at Armenia Coffee send a heartfelt embrace to anyone affected by the events of 9/11. Know for certain, we will never forget.

It was an interesting week last week. Early in the week we continued the correction of the impulsive move of the week before. Every day until Friday brought slightly lower highs and slightly lower lows, and the market had to do that to correct technicals that showed the market over bought. Friday saw the market rebound some as it used serial October options to base, first at 225.00 and then at least try to challenge 230.00.

The commitment of traders report showed the major players didn’t do much of anything in the time ending Tuesday September 6. Long fund sold 786 lots to move to 48,283 lots long, short funds were more active selling 1094 lots to go to 6,148 lots short. Trade net/net bought about 176 lots.

There were no notices issued against the Sept position with the total issued and stopped so far at 1399 lots which we think is a little more than we expected so far. ICE warehouse stocks total 615,822 bags and there are 20,049 bags pending grading. Weather has gone back to favorable in Brazil, Mexico and Central America according to DTN. Brazil Real did not move much in the past few days and is currently sitting at 5.11939 and the Colombia Peso continued to get stronger now standing at 4350.6.

It’s going to be interesting what the market does in the next few days without the inspiration of the options expiry. The volumes of the last few days have been lighter than normal and the COT shows that the major players were not as aggressive as they could have been. Support still stands near the 200 day moving average around 225.00 and then the recent lows 220.65 Overhead resistance at 230.00 after which the market might be able to make a bit of a run at the recent 242 high.

We have featured coffees this week, some Hard Bean Guatemala, RFA/Organic and RFA Colombia, some organic and FTO Honduras and Sumatra Organic grade 5 all now in the warehouse ready to sample if you wish. How can we help you today?

All the best,
The Armenia Team